Analysis Paralysis

'Satisficing,' Camino de Santiago, and more...

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Good morning,

This summer, I’ve decided to embark on a trip I’ve loosely wanted to take for over a decade: the Camino de Santiago in the Basque region of Spain. As I prepare for the trip, and pray to the pickleball gods that I don’t get injured playing between now and then, I’m faced with many decisions about what to bring for my three-week journey. (The trip really takes five weeks to complete, and I’ll only be doing part of it.)

For the duration of the trip, I’ll be living out of a backpack. Not one of those massive bags I took to Europe after college, but something between that and a book bag. According to everything I’ve been reading, the packing list is an art form. The goal is to minimize weight and unnecessary items, since anything I bring will be on my back for 10 to 15 miles per day as I traverse the terrain.

As I dig deep into message boards, podcasts, and conversations with someone who’s done the trip a couple of times, I’m finding myself slipping into a bit of analysis paralysis when it comes to purchasing the items I need and locating the stuff I already own (My Keen sandals vs. my North Face trail runners; an ultralight sleeping bag vs. a silk mummy liner; which secondary pair of shoes to bring–definitely OOFOS, but which ones?).

I thought about all of these micro-decisions while reading an article called “Stop Trying So Hard to Make the Best Decision” by David Epstein.

He starts the piece by saying:

“If in making decisions you are often guided by a search for the best, you are going about decision making all wrong — and you’re also probably less happy for it.

In an age of information and choice abundance, we assume we can find the best of everything if we look long and hard enough. Psychologists call that tendency maximizing.

But searching for the best is the wrong goal. That is because searching is itself a cost, and most people forget to account for it. If you did, you would see that the optimal strategy isn’t optimizing at all.”

The abundance of choice (using my tried-and-true Costco merino wool socks or splurging on a couple pairs of Darn Tough hiking socks, bringing a novel to read or leaving it at home) can get in the way of enjoying the fact that I get to go on this wonderful adventure.

According to Herbert Simon, a pioneer of artificial intelligence and cognitive psychology, and a Nobel laureate in economics, “there’s a better way to make decisions…”

“Mr. Simon demonstrated that for most decisions, humans can’t really evaluate the options available — there are too many, our information about them is incomplete and our minds aren’t built to weigh them all — and so we rely on mental shortcuts. He coined the term ‘satisficing’ — a portmanteau of satisfy and suffice — to describe how we consider a limited set of options, then choose one that is good enough and move on to live our lives.”

The idea is simple: when facing a decision, consider a few alternatives, maybe ask for some advice, make your choice, and then move on. Don’t argue with yourself or second-guess it afterward. “‘The best is enemy of the good’ was the mantra [Simon] lived by.”

Because of our unfettered access to message boards, AI feedback, five-star rating scales, and reviews, I’ve found myself mired in minutiae and consciously needing to pull back. I want the spontaneity of the trip, and the imperfections in the packing list, to be as much a part of the experience as whatever good inevitably comes from it.

When going through life coaching training, one of my key learnings was the concept of what I want to be doing vs. how I want to be while doing it. Yes, I can be doing the things I say I want to be doing, but am I stressed out/wreaking havoc/no fun to be around while doing them? It’s been a while since I’ve gone on a solo vacation, and getting ready for the trip is part of the fun of it. Little by little, I will commit to being lighter and less perfectionistic about the planning and enjoy the fact that I get to go, and be “satisficed” with whatever happens leading up to it and while on the trail.

What in your life are you overanalyzing? What decisions are you circling? What could help you make the decision and embody being okay with it, one way or the other?

Until next time,

Matt

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Listening: The Field “Now You Exist,” Drake “ICEMAN”

Watching: DTF St. Louis

Reading: Go Gentle by Maria Semple

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matthewleebaron.com